I want to take a break from the usual Horserace topics to discuss the current political situation in my home state—Louisiana. To begin with, an outsider must understand that New Orleans was the gem of the Louisiana Democratic Party. It was a cash machine for Democratic politicians and a hot bed of Democratic voters. It was how the Louisiana Democratic Party counterbalanced the immense power the Republicans hold in rural Louisiana. Now, this balance of power that Louisianans are accustomed to seems to be threatened.
People here are anxious to see what is going to happen. A number of my classmates have dedicated their blogs to the subject (
The New New Orleans and
What Does the Government Owe Us?), so I’ll concern my comments with how the post-Katrina atmosphere down here could play a part in 2008. To being with, the most obvious development is the large number of displaced African-Americans that appear to be settling into their new hometowns. As
Wesley Pruden of the Washington Times points out, African-Americans (most of whom voted Democrat) once comprised 70 percent of the New Orleans population. With those voters gone, it seems that Louisiana could fall in-line with the rest of our solidly ‘red’ Southern states. But, I suspect it won’t be that easy for the Republican candidates to claim victory in Louisiana. To begin with, many Louisianans are feeling increasingly betrayed by the Federal Government which is firmly in the hands of the Republican Party. Granted, it won’t be Bush up for election in 2008, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see locals put the brunt of the blame on Republican shoulders as they do control the Executive, Legislative, and Judicial Branches. While the rest of the nation took
Bush’s speech from Jackson Square to be simply another staged political event, many here took it as a promise. When he said, “Federal funds will cover the great majority of the costs of repairing public infrastructure in the disaster zone, from roads and bridges to schools and water systems,” he was promising unprecedented aid that would parallel the unprecedented scale of disaster. But, now we see many members of Congress reluctant to send the help that is needed. To paraphrase Charles Zewe, one of my mass communication professors at LSU, it is becoming increasingly obvious that we’re going to have to rebuild on our own. Our history of past corruption is helping the media to create a schema in the national consciousness that suggests we cannot be trusted with large amounts of money.
But there is another schema being developed down here in Louisiana. It says we’ve been betrayed by Congress and the President. The Democratic National Party is making headway to suggest that they are the party that cares about Louisiana (though this could be just as disingenuous as Republican promises). Some Democrats are lobbying DNC Chairman Howard Dean to hold the 2008 Democratic National Convention in New Orleans.
Representative Elijah Cummings (D-MD) says it is a move that would prove New Orleans “has not been forgotten,” according to
BizNewOrleans.com.
If the DNC announces that it is coming to New Orleans, it will be interesting to see what happens. With the above mentioned political balance sure to be out-of-whack, it will be a hell of a political move to salvage only 9 electoral votes. Of course it is possible that Louisianans will have moved on to other important issues by then. But, as it is now, I feel some animosity toward the Republican Party in this state—which conventional political theory dictates swinging further to the right in the 3 to 5 year future.
As discussed before, this could prove to be advantageous for candidates not currently holding a seat in the U.S. Senate because they won't have to defend a vote on bills like the infamous
Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century which once contained the 'bridge to nowhere.' Of course,
the bridge was removed from the bill, but Alaska still gets the $432 million for their Department of Transportation to use at their discretion. Stories like these are not being forgotten in Louisiana while we watch other federal officials shove pork into bills while stripping the Katrina relief bill to its bare minimum. Potential candidates like Gov. Warner, Gov. Huckabee, Gov. Richardson, John Edwards, etc. will not have to explain such decisions like those currently serving in Congress.
Again, I am aware that this post strays from the usual content of Horserace08, but I think it is a valid inquiry into the future realities of Louisiana Presidential politics—on the party level rather than a candidate level.
