ECS for December 14, 2005
It's Wednesday, and that means the latest edition of the Election Championship Series is ready:
Democrats
1.Hillary Rodham-Clinton (0.61)
1.Mark Warner (0.61)
3.John Kerry (0.31)
4.Evan Bayh (0.24)
5.John Edwards (0.17)
6.Bill Richardson (0.11)
7.Tom Vilsack (0.10)
8.Wesley Clark (0.09)
9.Russ Feingold (0.08)
10.Joe Biden (0.07)
10.Jon Corzine (0.07)
Republicans
1.Bill Frist (0.98)
2.John McCain (0.80)
3.Rudy Giuliani (0.54)
4.Condi Rice (0.45)
5.George Allen (0.41)
6.Jeb Bush (0.31)
6.Newt Gingrich (0.31)
8.Chuck Hagel (0.29)
9.Mike Huckabee (0.25)
10.Mitt Romney (0.23)
A couple of interesting developments include Mark Warner's jump to a tie with Hillary Clinton after his $2.5M fundraising event which not only helped him in the “PAC cash in bank” and “PAC money raised” categories, but also gave him significant blogging attention. Other than that, Kerry overtook Bayh, and Biden is making his first appearance on the list with his tie at 10th with Corzine--who is falling. Also, if you compare the power points (the number in parentheses next to the name) from this week to those of last week, you'll notice that the Democratic rankings are becoming lower suggesting a closer race than last week.
In the Republican list, you'll notice that Gingrich pulled ahead of Hagel. Other than that, there have been no major developments. Bill Frist is still sweeping the list with his huge war chest.
See Inaugural ECS for notes on how the rankings are calculated.
posted by Ben at 2:45 AM
6 Comments:
I like how Warner has tied with Clinton in the Democratic poll. I think Warner will be their choice in 2008; Clinton will have been running against herself for five years as the frontrunner. There are already entire organizations dedicated to tracking her every move and vote. I think Warner has some pretty good political talent as well. I watch every time I see him speak on TV and he almost makes me want to be a Democrat. If he can win in 2008, he could start a whole wave of "Warner Republicans" much like the "Reagan Democrats" of the 1980s. A candidate who can command that much crossover support is a talent that comes every so often. Democrats better not miss their chance on Warner, he might be what they need to rise again as the majority party
Also, Kerry and Frist are the Notre Dame and Oregon of the ECS, respectively. Kerry was once on top as a Democratic presidential hopeful, and now he is hyped because of name recognition (Irish). Frist is highly ranked while accomplishing nothing substantial but being Senate Majority Leader, and a weak one at that-he'll get left out of the real competition just like the Ducks, and deservedly so.
To continue you're analogy of Frist as the Ducks, you should also point out that he is competing in an incredibly weak conference (as the Republican field of candidates seems weak right now). It's easy to get to the top of the PAC-10 when you're playing teams like ASU, Wash. St., Oregon St., Stanford, Cal, etc.
Good point on the PAC-10 and that note, HOOK EM' HORNS
LOLOLOLOLOL! Nice analogies.
But I really think that the ECS should factor in a candidate's percieved "Integrity". (I think Gallup et al have this data). People like McCain and Feingold would own so hard.
New topic. I agree with you, michael, that Hillary's gonna have a tough time dealing with the cutthroat smear camps. The Democrats have lagged the Republicans in their enthusiasm about these types of organizations, probably because Republicans usually don't do a very good job of covering up their slime. But I think this time around they (Dems) will have to invest heavily in one just to counteract what's surely gonna come at Hillary, especially if uber clean McCain gets the nomination.
How about Hillary as a VP rather than a presidential candidate? She'll appeal to liberal Democrats who might view Warner (or Bayh) while not attracting as much of a backlash from Republicans as she would as a Presidential candidate...
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