Inaugural ECS
Here it is! The first Horserace08 Election Championship Series rankings:
Republicans:
1. Bill Frist (0.97)
2. John McCain (0.80)
3. Rudy Giuliani (0.53)
4. Condeleeza Rice (0.45)
5. George Allen (0.42)
6. Jeb Bush (0.32)
7. Newt Gingrich (0.29)
7. Chuck Hagel (0.29)
9. Mike Huckabee (0.26)
Democrats:
1. Hillary Rodham-Clinton (0.67)
2. Evan Bayh (0.46)
3. John Kerry (0.41)
4. Mark Warner (0.35)
5. John Edwards (0.22)
6. Tom Vilsack (0.19)
7. Bill Richardson (.018)
8. Joe Corzine (0.14)
9. Russ Feingold (0.12)
10. Wesley Clark (0.11)
A few notes:
The number you see next to the name is all the following perimeters that were considered (normalized) weighted as follows:
-Betting odds from Trade Sports—35%
-PAC cash in the bank—25%
-Number of blogs referencing the candidate according to Technorati—20%
-PAC money raised—15%
-thenextprez.blogspot.com weekly human poll—5%
There were a few candidates that either do not have a PAC or I could not find the money his/her PAC raised. For those instances, 'money raised' and 'cash in bank' columns were normalized—the amounts of the other candidates were averaged and that number was used for candidates without applicable information. Granted this isn't a perfect system, but I'm pleased with the results.
It is worth noting that Bill Frist has raised an exorbitant amount of money thus far (almost $2 million) and has not spent much of it. This greatly contributed to his #1 ranking. Some may see this as a flaw in the ECS, but I think it's a testament to how well it emulates the Bowl Championship Series which is prone to ranking controversies.
Questions or comments on the ECS? I'd like to hear them. The ECS is a work in progress; so let me know how I can make it better.
posted by Ben at 11:22 PM
7 Comments:
Critical thing you forgot to mention: A candidate's final power ratings are relative only to his own party. So the Frist's 0.97 shows a fat lead relative to other Republicans only.
Great work. Can you create links for all names to their PAC sites or their gov sites? Also, could you takes through, step-by-step, how you create ranking? Worth discussing: how can you integrate "buzz consensus." Right now Frist is dismissed by many pundits, but yet he is strong on the numbers. Wonder if it's possible to create an "Index of Leading Pundits"--not that they end up being right. But your list is not meant to be predictive, yes, just reporting where people are now.
Mike makes a good point. It is important to note that the 'power ratings' are relative to the candidate's party.
Can we place bets though your blog? I like your calculation method. However, I think that we are bound to see some drastic changes in the predictions as we get closer to '08. I think that a lot of the front-runner status may change after the Parties perceive the opposition's front-runner. That will begin the attacks and shift candidates around within parties. Maybe you could account for that in your ratings?
Hugh Hewitt and Daily Kos had some straw polls about a week ago that you might want to check out to include for human polls. The party's strength might matter too if you make a comprehensive list (to sub for strength of schedule-Democrats have better candidates right now than Republicans).
Hey very nice job.
Since Warner raised 2.5 million last night, how would he recalculate?
Daniel
Thanks for including The Next Prez in your ECS formula -- I'm flattered. Are you using the monthly straw polls, or my weekly candidate rankings?
You might want to include the straw polls on Hugh Hewitt and DailyKos as michael suggested, as well as the straw poll on MyDD.com. PoliticalDerby.com also has presidential rankings, and I believe Tim Saler on RedState.org does as well.
How you should weight all of them is quite a puzzle. I don't see Bill Frist's PAC cash helping him overcome the negative publicity he has received so far.
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